Description
As a country dominated by animal husbandry, the livestock carrying status in Kazakhstan has a prolonged impact on grassland degradation and restoration, and thus on the supply of grassland ecosystem services. Here we predict future conditions of livestock carrying status by modeling change in potential forage supply and consumption from 2020 to 2030, using three alternative scenarios following Representative Concentration Pathways, specifically SSP2 (RCP4.5, MESSAGE), SSP1 (RCP2.6, IMAGE) and SSP3 (RCP7.0, AIM), namely BAU, TSS and SSS respectively. Our future scenarios suggested that from 2020 to 2030, the forage consumption in central and southern regions of Kazakhstan is predicted to increase rapidly, while forage supply will decrease in these regions, especially the northern parts. The livestock carrying status in the southern regions tends to be overloaded to different degrees especially under the SSS and BAU scenarios, whereas the other areas hold surplus status. Our study could serve as a scientific basis for enhancing grassland management and achieving the target of the Sustainable Development Goals 2030.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.13023/aawz-jj21
Citation
Li, Jiahuil; Huang, L.; and Cao, W., "Future Scenario Projections of Livestock Carrying Status of Grassland Ecosystem in Kazakhstan" (2024). IGC Proceedings (1993-2023). 66.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/XXV_IGC_2023/Utilization/66
Included in
Agricultural Science Commons, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Commons, Plant Biology Commons, Plant Pathology Commons, Soil Science Commons, Weed Science Commons
Future Scenario Projections of Livestock Carrying Status of Grassland Ecosystem in Kazakhstan
As a country dominated by animal husbandry, the livestock carrying status in Kazakhstan has a prolonged impact on grassland degradation and restoration, and thus on the supply of grassland ecosystem services. Here we predict future conditions of livestock carrying status by modeling change in potential forage supply and consumption from 2020 to 2030, using three alternative scenarios following Representative Concentration Pathways, specifically SSP2 (RCP4.5, MESSAGE), SSP1 (RCP2.6, IMAGE) and SSP3 (RCP7.0, AIM), namely BAU, TSS and SSS respectively. Our future scenarios suggested that from 2020 to 2030, the forage consumption in central and southern regions of Kazakhstan is predicted to increase rapidly, while forage supply will decrease in these regions, especially the northern parts. The livestock carrying status in the southern regions tends to be overloaded to different degrees especially under the SSS and BAU scenarios, whereas the other areas hold surplus status. Our study could serve as a scientific basis for enhancing grassland management and achieving the target of the Sustainable Development Goals 2030.
