An Integrated Framework to Study Ecological Tipping Points in Social-Ecological Systems

An Integrated Framework to Study Ecological Tipping Points in Social-Ecological Systems

Sudden regime shifts or tipping points pose a major threat to various ecosystems and people's livelihoods worldwide. However, tipping points are still hard to predict and often occur without warning. To avoid dramatic social-ecological consequences, it is crucial to understand tipping point behaviour and to identify early warning indicators. Previous studies have hardly implemented an integrated social-ecological approach, which has led to a fragmented understanding and oversimplification of tipping point phenomena. Against this background, we present a systemic research framework that harmonizes ecological and social perspectives to gain a mechanistic understanding of tipping point behaviour. We utilize a social-ecological systems (SES) approach to identify drivers, consequences, and feasible preventive strategies. Our proposed framework consists of a retrospective, a comparative and a prospective perspective; each of them utilizes interdisciplinary studies in both sub systems at multiple scales. The research framework was developed by the members of NamTip, an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming to understand and manage desertification tipping points in Namibia’s semi-arid rangelands. The NamTip project represents a practical implementation of the research framework, that uses an integrated, social-ecological study design combining the threefold approach with dynamic modelling. This includes analyses of time-series and archival data, experimental and observational studies, as well as scenario development and exploration of decision-making with local farmers. After the initial practical implementation and with our ongoing evaluation, we are convinced that such an ambitious and complex framework will guide the way to a profound understanding of tipping point phenomena and feasible management options.