Track 2-07: Climate Change Impacts on Grassland Production, Composition, Distribution and Adaptation
Description
According to climate change projections, the conditions for forage grass production in Northern Europe, including Norway, will change dramatically during the 21st century. The projected changes in climate in this country include increased average annual air temperature as well as increased precipitation both during the summer and winter season (Hansen-Bauer et al. 2009). In previous studies, effects of projected climate change on the above-ground biomass production, winter survival and harvest security of forage grasses have been assessed (Thorsen and Höglind 2010; Höglind et al. 2013). For example, Persson and Höglind (2013) showed a decreased dry spell period and an increased accumulated precipitation at the time of optimal harvest quality of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) at a few locations in Norway due to climate change. These results suggest increased difficulties to harvest forage grasses under future climate conditions. However, more knowledge is needed to better assess the risk of forage harvest failure due to increased rainfall and changed rainfall patterns.
In this paper, we present a first attempt to quantify the risk of harvest failure of timothy grass given certain climate change scenarios, weather data downscaled from general circulation models (GCMs), and harvest management strategies.
Included in
Assessment of Harvest Security of Timothy under Climate Change Condition Using a Set of Simple Criteria
According to climate change projections, the conditions for forage grass production in Northern Europe, including Norway, will change dramatically during the 21st century. The projected changes in climate in this country include increased average annual air temperature as well as increased precipitation both during the summer and winter season (Hansen-Bauer et al. 2009). In previous studies, effects of projected climate change on the above-ground biomass production, winter survival and harvest security of forage grasses have been assessed (Thorsen and Höglind 2010; Höglind et al. 2013). For example, Persson and Höglind (2013) showed a decreased dry spell period and an increased accumulated precipitation at the time of optimal harvest quality of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) at a few locations in Norway due to climate change. These results suggest increased difficulties to harvest forage grasses under future climate conditions. However, more knowledge is needed to better assess the risk of forage harvest failure due to increased rainfall and changed rainfall patterns.
In this paper, we present a first attempt to quantify the risk of harvest failure of timothy grass given certain climate change scenarios, weather data downscaled from general circulation models (GCMs), and harvest management strategies.
