HARDWOOD CROSS-LAMINATED TIMBER PRODUCTION: POTENTIAL TIMBER SUPPLY AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS IN KENTUCKY
Author ORCID Identifier
Date Available
12-8-2027
Year of Publication
2025
Document Type
Master's Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Forest and Natural Resource Sciences (MSFNRS)
College
Agriculture, Food and Environment
Department/School/Program
Forestry and Natural Resources
Faculty
Thomas Ochuodho
Faculty
Jian Yang
Abstract
The building construction industry is experiencing a shift towards more sustainable materials such as Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT). In the U.S., CLT is predominantly manufactured from softwoods such as southern yellow pine, of which about 60% of the demand are sourced domestically. Kentucky lies in the central hardwood region with abundant hardwood species, which have desirable qualities for CLT production. This research assesses hardwood timber supply for CLT production and the associated potential economy-wide impacts in Kentucky. First, it uses Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) multi-panel inventory periods data from 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2021 and growth-to-drain ratio approach to evaluate timber supply and sustainability by comparing annual net growth with annual timber removals. Second, it applies Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model framework to assess the potential economic impact of hardwood CLT production under two experimental shocks (i) increased intermediate input demand for CLT facility construction, and (ii) increased intermediate input demand for CLT manufacturing. Results revealed that total growth-to-drain ratios consistently exceed unity (2.0 in 2009, 2.9 in 2014, 3.4 in 2021), demonstrating that forest growth outpaces removals and hardwood resources are sustainably available. Grade-specific analysis revealed that lower-grade (Grade 3) trees exhibit the highest growth-to-drain ratios, representing substantial underutilized timber suitable for CLT. Higher-grade trees (Grades 1 and 2) ratios approached near unity, reflecting sustained demand for premium products. Sensitivity analyses simulating potential CLT production and potential expansion showed that total growth-to-drain ratios remain above 1.0 with lower grades exhibiting the highest ratios. In terms of economic impacts, there was an increase in output quantities across all the industries. The overall household welfare impacts under both experiments were $785 million and $3.3 million respectively. These findings indicate sustainable timber supply of low-grade timber to support hardwood CLT production. They also demonstrate that hardwood CLT production can stimulate timber utilization, support industrial growth and generate economic benefits. Overall, the findings of this study can guide policymakers in designing sustainable hardwood timber management, support hardwood CLT production and CLT integration into regional construction planning.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2025.544
Funding Information
This study was supported in part by funding from the Kentucky Agricultural Development Board grant Agreement ID# A2021-0257
Recommended Citation
Onyango, Vaine A., "HARDWOOD CROSS-LAMINATED TIMBER PRODUCTION: POTENTIAL TIMBER SUPPLY AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS IN KENTUCKY" (2025). Theses and Dissertations--Forestry and Natural Resources. 80.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/forestry_etds/80
Included in
Cultural Resource Management and Policy Analysis Commons, Economics Commons, Forest Management Commons
