Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9646-6911

Date Available

12-10-2025

Year of Publication

2025

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College

Agriculture, Food and Environment

Department/School/Program

Agricultural Economics

Faculty

Dr. Grant Gardner

Faculty

Dr. Kenneth Burdine

Faculty

Dr. Yoko Kusunose

Abstract

Soft red winter (SRW) wheat basis reflects local demand conditions influenced by a range of structural and market factors. This study describes market signaling through carry and basis, arbitrage opportunities in SRW wheat, and the advantages or disadvantages of different grain origination contracts. A hedonic modeling framework, using observations pooled by futures board period, evaluated the seasonal drivers of wheat basis. A panel dataset was constructed from public and private sources and aggregated to the United Stated Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural District level. Explanatory variables included regional milling capacity, mill storage, NASS wheat production, diesel price, rail car cost, barge cost, gulf tanker cost, on-farm stocks, off-farm stocks, export ratios (Atlantic, Gulf, Interior, and Lakes), futures price, and stocks-to-use ratio. The model was first estimated employing the entire dataset, followed by separate regressions for each board period. Comparing these results revealed that the effects of explanatory variables (e.g., regional milling capacity and storage, wheat production, on- and off-farm stocks, and transportation costs) vary across marketing periods, highlighting the seasonal patterns in the factors which influence SRW wheat basis. Results of the study provide new insights into marketing opportunities near flour mills.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2025.536

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