A Statistics-Based Material Property Analysis to Support Ablation Simulation UQ Efforts

Accurate characterization of entry capsule heat shield material properties is a critical component in modeling and simulating Thermal Protection System (TPS) response in a prescribed aerothermal environment. The thermal decomposition of the TPS material during the pyrolysis and charring processes is typically poorly characterized and results in large uncertainties in material properties as inputs for ablation models. These material property uncertainties contribute to large design margins on flight systems and cloud re-construction efforts for data collected during flight and ground testing, making revision to existing models for entry systems more challenging. This work focuses on the following areas of interest to the ablation modeling community: a proper characterization of input probability density functions for material properties, an uncertainty propagation to identify how the uncertainties affect quantities of interest, a sensitivity and uncertainty contributor breakdown, and an analysis of how errors in input characterization contribute to errors in output distributions.