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Protecting the Vulnerable: Elderly Population Change in Kentucky & Nursing Home Floodplain Proximity
Date Available
6-22-2026
Year of Publication
2026
Document Type
Graduate Capstone Project
Degree Name
Master of Public Administration
College
Graduate School
Department/School/Program
Public Administration
Faculty
Spiro Maroulis
Committee Member
Iuliia Shybalkina
Faculty
Michael Childress
Faculty
Nick Grinstead
Abstract
This study explores Kentucky’s changing vulnerability to flooding. Relying on America Community Survey (ACS) survey data estimates for 2019 and 2024, we illustrate how Kentucky’s elderly population has changed over this five-year period. Using nursing home data and floodplain spatial data, provided by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and FEMA respectively, we identify all 269 facilities and their proximity to floodplains across Kentucky. To narrow the scope of our study, we highlight counties that (a) have seen the largest percentage increase in elderly residents and (b) have a large total elderly population. Using a quartile ranking system, we identified fourteen Kentucky counties that fit the highest quartile of both criteria. However, zero nursing home facilities within these counties were located on high-risk floodplains. To expand our analysis, we also identify counties that rank in Q4 of either criterion; thirty-two additional counties fit this expanded criterion. Within these counties, eleven nursing home facilities reside on high-risk floodplains. Our results suggest two things. First, Kentucky counties experiencing significant elderly population growth and having a large total elderly population appear to recognize the vulnerabilities this demographic faces. Conversely, counties with a large total elderly population or percentage change appear to lack familiarity with the significant risks this demographic faces. These Kentucky counties should be the focus for state planners, given the number of nursing home facilities located on high-risk floodplains. This study adds to the existing literature by providing state planners with a spatial framework that identifies state-level flood risks across elderly populations and vulnerable state assets. Using this study as a baseline, future research can expand the scope of our analysis to include additional hazards.
Recommended Citation
Stevens, David M.; Mullen, Austin Matthew; and Hammond, Nicklaus P., "Protecting the Vulnerable: Elderly Population Change in Kentucky & Nursing Home Floodplain Proximity" (2026). MPA/MPP/MPFM Capstone Projects. 478.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/mpampp_etds/478
