Date Available

12-18-2025

Year of Publication

2025

Document Type

Graduate Capstone Project

Degree Name

Master of Public Financial Management

College

Graduate School

Department/School/Program

Public Policy and Administration

Faculty

Dr. Iuliia Shybalkina

Committee Member

Dr. Spiro Maroulis

Faculty

Dr. John Foster

Abstract

Fuel tax revenues are declining nationwide due to electric vehicle adoption, improved fuel efficiency, and long periods without rate adjustments. This erosion has created long-term instability in transportation funding, including in Oregon, where revenue no longer aligns with road use. Road usage charges (RUCs) offer a potential replacement by charging drivers per mile traveled rather than per gallon consumed. However, their success depends less on technology and more on how programs are designed and governed.

This capstone examines which design features make RUC programs effective, using Oregon’s OReGO program as the central case. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) comparing Oregon, Utah, Virginia, New Zealand, and Germany identifies the combination of conditions that lead to successful implementation. The analysis finds that three institutional features: administrative simplicity, strong privacy protections, and transparent governance consistently predict program success. Fiscal adequacy and technological flexibility matter, but they do not produce success on their own.

Oregon excels in transparency and privacy protections, but its multi-vendor administration increases complexity, raises costs, and limits participation. Virginia’s DMV-integrated system and New Zealand’s long-standing, simple structure demonstrate that streamlined administration improves user trust, lowers costs, and enhances scalability. Germany shows that high revenue cannot compensate for weak transparency or privacy safeguards.

The study also highlights broader concerns affecting acceptance, including misconceptions that RUC is an additional tax, persistent privacy fears, and potential impacts on rural and low-income drivers. Clear communication and equity-oriented design are essential to address these challenges.

The capstone recommends a phased strategy: simplifying OReGO’s administration and strengthening public communication in the near term; expanding participation and implementing equity adjustments in the medium term; and promoting interstate interoperability and inflation indexing over the long term.

Overall, Oregon’s experience shows that sustainable RUC systems depend on public trust and institutional legitimacy. Transparent, privacy-protective, and easy-to-use systems are most likely to succeed as states transition away from the declining fuel tax.

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