In this project a stochastic model, using Semi-Markov Processes, was developed to simulate daily rainfall patterns in Kentucky. This model contains many of the currently used models as special cases and is applicable at any station in Kentucky as well as elsewhere.
For use in Kentucky an 8 state Semi-Markov Process is developed and the parameters of the model are determined from historical rainfall data. The model is tested at 4 different stations in Kentucky and the simulated and actual rainfall processes are found to be in good agreement. Finally some long run probabilities are calculated as well as mean return times. An appendix outlining some basic properties of the Semi-Markov Process is also included.
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The work on which this report is based was supported in part by funds provided by the Office of Water Research and Technology, United States Department of the Interior, as authorized under the Water Resources Research Act of 1964.
This report is Part II of the technical completion report for the research project entitled "Stochastic and Statistical Models for Precipitation". The project was supported by funds provided by the United States Department of Interior to the University of Kentucky Water Resources Institute as authorized by the Water Resources Act of 1964, Public Law 88-379, as Office of Water Resources Research Project No. A-055-KY.
Purdue, Peter and Govindarajulu, Z., "Stochastic Models for Precipitation" (1977). KWRRI Research Reports. 96.