KWRRI Research Reports


We estimate aggregate monthly water use for summer, peak demand and nonsummer off-peak demand periods for the Kentucky River Basin. Using Kentucky Division of Water use data, U.S. Census data for county demographic and economic conditions, and U.S. Weather Service data for weather conditions we estimate use for the 1970-1993 period. Our model allows for idiosyncratic effects of each of the 27 counties in the sample. We find factors such as population and manufacturing employment effect use and temperature and rainfall in current and preceding months effect use during the summer, peak period. The model predicts well within the sample period Population forecasts. both moderate and high growth series, from the Kentucky Data Center are used along with the manufacturing employment forecasts for water use forecasts. Water use forecasts are made for years out to 2020 under 1930 drought conditions for comparison with water supply estimates. The use estimates are made assuming pricing and other demand management policies remain constant.

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