Abstract

The aviation industry is a linchpin of Kentucky’s economy. Major firms such as UPS, Amazon, and DHL have major hubs at Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport (SDF) and Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG). As of December 2022, 4,570 aircraft mechanics and service technicians (AMTs) were employed in the state. Demand in this sector is poised to grow. As such, it is critical to understand what resources Kentucky has available to train the next generation of professionals and the number of people the aviation industry is likely to employ statewide over the next decade. Kentucky and the surrounding states are home to 35 programs that train AMTs. Most of Kentucky’s AMTs graduate from Jefferson Community and Technical College and Somerset Community College (Maysville Community and Technical College is launching an AMT program), schools in southern Ohio, or arrive from out of state. Each year, Kentucky adds over 300 AMTs through immigration to Kentucky and graduates from AMT programs. AMT programs are critical sources of workers, but schools struggle to keep faculty on staff, with turnover in the 30-40% range due to low pay. Based on historical data, two mathematical models were developed to forecast the number of AMT jobs Kentucky will add between 2023 and 2035. These models suggest the number of AMTs will increase to a range between 2,311 and 3,027. Based on these projections, supply and demand for AMTs will reach equilibrium in 2027. To ensure Kentucky avoids a shortage of AMTs, expanding the number of training and certification programs and running programs at or near their capacity is critical.

Report Date

11-2023

Report Number

KTC-24-11

Digital Object Identifier

https://doi.org/10.13023/ktc.rr.2024.11

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