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Author ORCID Identifier
Date Available
12-7-2026
Year of Publication
2026
Document Type
Doctoral Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
College
Education
Department/School/Program
Kinesiology and Health Promotion
Faculty
Stuart Best
Faculty
Mark Abel
Faculty
Haley Bergstrom
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: National Hockey League (NHL) team success is dependent on athlete performance, as well as the synchronization of actions between teammates. At the individual level, there are many attributes that could affect player success. In addition, performance often fluctuates throughout a game, season, and career. Due to the complex interaction of individual and team performance, accurately measuring and predicting success has been limited in the NHL. PURPOSES: (AIM 1) To categorize NHL players drafted between 2000–2011 by career success between 2000–2022. (AIM 2) When comparing players categorized by career success, determine draft and development characteristics, outcomes, and demarcations through the first five years of their career. METHODS: Publicly available databases were used to identify NHL draftees between 2000–2011, as well as individual career statistics from the 2000-2001 to the 2021-2022 NHL seasons. Draftees were then separated by positions: Forwards (FOR), Defensemen (DEF), and Goaltenders (GOAL). Players were classified into 4 success groups (Outstanding (OUT), Above Average (AA), Average (AVG), and Below Average (BA)), based on the authors’ suggested position-specific performance thresholds, as well as NHL games played. FOR were classified using Points per Game (Ppg; includes both assists and goals), DEF were classified using Assists per Game (Apg), GOAL were classified using Save Percentage (SV%). Player groups were also classified according to years in the NHL, as well as Games per year (GP). A player’s final classification was based on their lowest category of years played, GP, or their respective performance metrics. Key development indicators were compared among success groups for each position: Draft Pick (DP), Age at NHL Draft, time from NHL Draft to NHL Debut (seasons), Total American Hockey League Games Played (AHL), Total NCAA Games Played (NCAA), as well as AHL/NHL performance (Years 1–2, and 1–5). Separate MANOVA and subsequent ANOVA (Scheffe post-hoc) analyses determined significant differences among success groups in development indicators, for each position group. RESULTS: 1432 players were included in the analysis (FOR=798, DEF=423, GOAL=141). The mean GP (FOR: 35.7±23.9; DEF: 33.5±23.3; GOAL: 17.815.8), Ppg (0.290±0.223, FOR only), Apg (0.159±0.137, DEF only), SV% (0.882 0.122, GOAL only) were calculated. 103 players were classified as outstanding (FOR=65; DEF=23; GOAL=15), 147 as Above Average (FOR=93; DEF=33; GOAL=21), 414 as Average (FOR=230; DEF=155; GOAL=29), and 696 as Below Average (FOR=410; DEF=212; GOAL=74). BA FOR were significantly older at their NHL debut when compared to OUT (p< 0.001), AA (p=0.009), and AVG (p=0.006) FOR, but there were no significant age differences for DEF (p>0.143) or GOAL (p=0.229). OUT FOR but not DEF were drafted earlier when compared to AA (FOR: p=0.031; DEF: p>0.999), AVG (FOR: p< 0.001; DEF: p>0.999), and BA (FOR: p< 0.001; DEF: p=0.074). There were no significant differences in the time OUT and AA FOR (p=0.193) and DEF (p>0.999) took between being drafted and playing in the NHL, but AVG (FOR: p< 0.001; DEF: p=0.060) and BA (both p< 0.001) took longer than OUT. AA GOAL were significantly faster at debuting in the NHL compared to BA GOAL (p=0.015). AHL GP was highest in the BA group and lowest in the OUT groups (FOR and DEF both p< 0.001). OUT and AA FOR and DEF (all p< 0.001), but not GOAL (p>0.399) played more games throughout years 1–2, and 1–5 of their NHL career. CONCLUSIONS: The study successfully used in-game statistics and career longevity to classify NHL players into categories of career success. OUT and AA FOR and DEF, but not GOAL, were drafted higher, reached the NHL earlier, and were more successful through five years of NHL time compared to AVG and BA counterparts. These data suggest that there are key outcomes players achieve early in their NHL career that indicate increased chances of greater career success in the NHL.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2026.165
Archival?
Archival
Recommended Citation
Gillis, Isabelle, "CAN EARLY CAREER PERFORMANCE THROUGH FIVE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE (NHL) SEASONS PREDICT LONG-TERM CAREER SUCCESS?" (2026). Theses and Dissertations--Kinesiology and Health Promotion. 137.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/khp_etds/137
