Track 2-07: Climate Change Impacts on Grassland Production, Composition, Distribution and Adaptation

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The APSIM model is an effective tool for making decisions on agricultural management. The model can simulate the biophysical process in farming systems, particularly economic and ecological features of the systems under climatic risk (Keating et al. 1998). The APSIM model has previously been used in the Loess Plateau (Tan, 2007; Chen et al. 2008). Based on climate data from the Loess Plateau from 1961-2010, we simulated three commonly grown crops, wheat, maize and lucerne. Additionally, by applying three climate change scenarios, we attempted to determine the production risk in the future, and gain an understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yield in the western Loess Plateau.

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Crop Production Simulation and Analysis of Climate Scenarios Based on the APSIM Model for the Long Term Run of the Western Loess Plateau

The APSIM model is an effective tool for making decisions on agricultural management. The model can simulate the biophysical process in farming systems, particularly economic and ecological features of the systems under climatic risk (Keating et al. 1998). The APSIM model has previously been used in the Loess Plateau (Tan, 2007; Chen et al. 2008). Based on climate data from the Loess Plateau from 1961-2010, we simulated three commonly grown crops, wheat, maize and lucerne. Additionally, by applying three climate change scenarios, we attempted to determine the production risk in the future, and gain an understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yield in the western Loess Plateau.