Date Available

1-22-2025

Year of Publication

2025

Document Type

Doctoral Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

College

Business and Economics

Department/School/Program

Economics

Advisor

Dr. Ana Maria Herrera

Co-Director of Graduate Studies

Dr. Steve Lugauer

Abstract

This dissertation explores how economic uncertainty and oil price shocks influence the U.S. labor market, focusing on the roles of age distributions, manufacturing characteristics, and labor skills. Chapter One investigates how uncertainty and age distribution affect employment volatility across U.S. states using data from 2000 Q1 to 2017 Q4. The findings show that states with a larger share of prime-aged workers experience lower employment volatility in the face of economic uncertainty. Chapter Two examines how global oil shocks influence manufacturing job flows, drawing on data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufacturers between 1980 Q3 and 2016 Q4. The results indicate that demand-driven shocks triggered by global economic expansions have a more significant and lasting impact than supply-driven shocks. These effects are particularly pronounced in durable goods sectors such as transportation equipment manufacturing, driven by firms’ higher energy and capital intensities. Chapter Three looks at how macroeconomic uncertainty affects wage dispersion and labor reallocation from 1972 to 2010. The findings suggest that increased uncertainty reduces wage dispersion among skilled workers and changes reallocation patterns, with skilled workers reallocating less and unskilled workers reallocating more.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2025.01

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