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Author ORCID Identifier
Date Available
7-30-2027
Year of Publication
2026
Document Type
Master's Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
College
Agriculture, Food and Environment
Department/School/Program
Agricultural Economics
Faculty
Shuoli Zhao
Faculty
Yoko Kusunose
Abstract
This thesis examines whether Israel's mandatory front-of-package (FOP) warning label policy, implemented in January 2020, was associated with changes in the nutrient composition of newly launched packaged food products. Using the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDiD) estimator (Arkhangelsky et al., 2021) and Mintel Global New Products Database data spanning 2017–2025, we estimate average treatment effects on three regulated nutrients, total sugar, saturated fat, and sodium, across six food categories: Bakery, Beverages, Breakfast Cereals, Dairy, Meals and Sauces, and Snacks and Confectionery. Inference is restricted to the 24 of 90 category-nutrient-donor combinations across alternative control-countries (donor) pools that satisfy the graphical parallel pre-trend criterion, as verified through SDiD gap plots.
The most robust finding is a statistically significant reduction in saturated fat content in Bakery products, with ATT estimates ranging from −0.695 to −1.102 g/100g across all four validated donor pool specifications (95%–99% confidence). This cross-specification consistency constitutes the strongest evidence of a genuine policy-associated nutrient composition change in the study. The only other statistically significant validated result is a reduction in total sugar in Dairy products under one passing specification (−1.514 g/100g, 95% confidence). For sodium, validated specifications were identified in Bakery, Dairy, Meals and Sauces, and Snacks and Confectionery, but none yielded evidence of a significant reduction; Meals and Sauces sodium showed consistently positive ATTs across three validated specifications. No specification passed the pre-trend criterion for Beverages total sugar, Beverages sodium, or Breakfast Cereals sodium.
These findings suggest that manufacturer responses to mandatory FOP labeling are nutrient- and category-specific, with the supply-side response concentrated in categories where technical substitution is feasible. The results contribute to the emerging quasi-experimental literature on supply-side responses to mandatory nutrition disclosure policies and carry implications for the design and evaluation of FOP labeling regulations globally.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2026.382
Archival?
Archival
Recommended Citation
Fati, Babatunde A., "MANUFACTURER RESPONSES TO MANDATORY WARNING LABELS: EVIDENCE FROM ISRAEL’S FRONT-OF-PACKAGE NUTRITION POLICY" (2026). Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics. 121.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_etds/121
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