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Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1785-3525

Date Available

7-30-2027

Year of Publication

2026

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College

Agriculture, Food and Environment

Department/School/Program

Agricultural Economics

Faculty

Shuoli Zhao

Faculty

Yoko Kusunose

Abstract

This thesis examines whether Israel's mandatory front-of-package (FOP) warning label policy, implemented in January 2020, was associated with changes in the nutrient composition of newly launched packaged food products. Using the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDiD) estimator (Arkhangelsky et al., 2021) and Mintel Global New Products Database data spanning 2017–2025, we estimate average treatment effects on three regulated nutrients, total sugar, saturated fat, and sodium, across six food categories: Bakery, Beverages, Breakfast Cereals, Dairy, Meals and Sauces, and Snacks and Confectionery. Inference is restricted to the 24 of 90 category-nutrient-donor combinations across alternative control-countries (donor) pools that satisfy the graphical parallel pre-trend criterion, as verified through SDiD gap plots.

The most robust finding is a statistically significant reduction in saturated fat content in Bakery products, with ATT estimates ranging from −0.695 to −1.102 g/100g across all four validated donor pool specifications (95%–99% confidence). This cross-specification consistency constitutes the strongest evidence of a genuine policy-associated nutrient composition change in the study. The only other statistically significant validated result is a reduction in total sugar in Dairy products under one passing specification (−1.514 g/100g, 95% confidence). For sodium, validated specifications were identified in Bakery, Dairy, Meals and Sauces, and Snacks and Confectionery, but none yielded evidence of a significant reduction; Meals and Sauces sodium showed consistently positive ATTs across three validated specifications. No specification passed the pre-trend criterion for Beverages total sugar, Beverages sodium, or Breakfast Cereals sodium.

These findings suggest that manufacturer responses to mandatory FOP labeling are nutrient- and category-specific, with the supply-side response concentrated in categories where technical substitution is feasible. The results contribute to the emerging quasi-experimental literature on supply-side responses to mandatory nutrition disclosure policies and carry implications for the design and evaluation of FOP labeling regulations globally.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2026.382

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Archival

Available for download on Friday, July 30, 2027

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