Publication Date
1993
Description
Climate change as a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or lhe repetition of historical climale variability will affect the management and production of tropical and subtropical grasslands that support about half the world's domestic herbivores. Previous studies of the regional impact of climate change and climate variability on intensive agriculture have shown lhat such evaluation should include the known and expected abilities of managers and governments to respond by reducing the negative impacts and taking advantage of positive opportunities, A high priority for grassland scientists is the development of similar evaluation capabilities for grassland systems, which are more complex as they cover a greater range of soil, plants, animals and human societies. We report a systems analysis approach to evaluating the impact of climate change and developing adaptive strategies for grazing systems. Better growing conditions resulting from some climate change scenarios will provide opportunities for improved management of grasslands and for change to better-adapted animal breeds and plant species. However, the adoption of new practices will require: (1) confidence that climate change can be separated from the naturally high year-to-year variability in rainfall that characterizes these systems; (2) the motivation to change based on the perceived risk and opportunities of climate change, (3) development of new technologies and demonstration of their benefits; (4) protection against establishment failure of new practices during less favorable climate periods; (5) aeration of transport and market infrastructure to support adhered production, We examine whether the recently improved seasonal forecasting skill, based on the understanding of Bl Nino/Soulhern Oscillation and/or the use of general circulation models in real lime, can be used to adapt grassland management to climate change. By linking management decisions (stocking rate, pasture burning, legume establishment, forage cropping, animal supplementation and herd management) to forecasts of above- or below-average seasonal rainfall, management would "drift" in the right direction to a new, if uncertain, climate regime.
Citation
Mckeon, G M.; Howden, S M.; Abel, N.O J.; and King, J M., "Climate Change: Adapting Tropical and Subtropical Grasslands" (2024). IGC Proceedings (1993-2023). 7.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/1993/session33/7
Included in
Agricultural Science Commons, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Commons, Plant Biology Commons, Plant Pathology Commons, Soil Science Commons, Weed Science Commons
Climate Change: Adapting Tropical and Subtropical Grasslands
Climate change as a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or lhe repetition of historical climale variability will affect the management and production of tropical and subtropical grasslands that support about half the world's domestic herbivores. Previous studies of the regional impact of climate change and climate variability on intensive agriculture have shown lhat such evaluation should include the known and expected abilities of managers and governments to respond by reducing the negative impacts and taking advantage of positive opportunities, A high priority for grassland scientists is the development of similar evaluation capabilities for grassland systems, which are more complex as they cover a greater range of soil, plants, animals and human societies. We report a systems analysis approach to evaluating the impact of climate change and developing adaptive strategies for grazing systems. Better growing conditions resulting from some climate change scenarios will provide opportunities for improved management of grasslands and for change to better-adapted animal breeds and plant species. However, the adoption of new practices will require: (1) confidence that climate change can be separated from the naturally high year-to-year variability in rainfall that characterizes these systems; (2) the motivation to change based on the perceived risk and opportunities of climate change, (3) development of new technologies and demonstration of their benefits; (4) protection against establishment failure of new practices during less favorable climate periods; (5) aeration of transport and market infrastructure to support adhered production, We examine whether the recently improved seasonal forecasting skill, based on the understanding of Bl Nino/Soulhern Oscillation and/or the use of general circulation models in real lime, can be used to adapt grassland management to climate change. By linking management decisions (stocking rate, pasture burning, legume establishment, forage cropping, animal supplementation and herd management) to forecasts of above- or below-average seasonal rainfall, management would "drift" in the right direction to a new, if uncertain, climate regime.
