Publication Date
1993
Description
A simulation model was used to investigate the pasture and animal production and gross margins of a typical all sheep permanent pasture farm in South Canterbury, New Zealand, using 60 years of current climate data, and also a climate change scenario. The model was run on a fixed management system at different stocking rates with and without destocking during feed shortages. Mean annual pasture production was 8060 kg/ha, with a coefficient of variation of 22%. Destocking enabled more stock to be carried on average, with higher, but rh.ore variable, returns. A climate change scenario of a 75% increase in CO2' 1.8°C rise in mean temperature, a 5% decrease in rainfall and an 8% increase in solar radiation produced 46% higher but more variable pasture yields, resulting in optimum stocking rates, costs1 returns and gross margins all being increased 25-50%.
Citation
Martin, R J.; Baird, D B.; Salinger, M J.; Van Gardingen, P R.; and McCall, D G., "Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability and Climate Change on a Pastoral Farming System" (2024). IGC Proceedings (1993-2023). 6.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/1993/session28/6
Included in
Agricultural Science Commons, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Commons, Plant Biology Commons, Plant Pathology Commons, Soil Science Commons, Weed Science Commons
Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability and Climate Change on a Pastoral Farming System
A simulation model was used to investigate the pasture and animal production and gross margins of a typical all sheep permanent pasture farm in South Canterbury, New Zealand, using 60 years of current climate data, and also a climate change scenario. The model was run on a fixed management system at different stocking rates with and without destocking during feed shortages. Mean annual pasture production was 8060 kg/ha, with a coefficient of variation of 22%. Destocking enabled more stock to be carried on average, with higher, but rh.ore variable, returns. A climate change scenario of a 75% increase in CO2' 1.8°C rise in mean temperature, a 5% decrease in rainfall and an 8% increase in solar radiation produced 46% higher but more variable pasture yields, resulting in optimum stocking rates, costs1 returns and gross margins all being increased 25-50%.
