With increasing of distributed energy resources deployment behind-the-meter and of the power system levels, more attention is being placed on electric load and generation forecasting or prediction for individual residences. While prediction with machine learning based approaches of aggregated power load, at the substation or community levels, has been relatively successful, the problem of prediction of power of individual houses remains a largely open problem. This problem is harder due to the increased variability and uncertainty in user consumption behavior, which make individual residence power traces be more erratic and less predictable. In this paper, we present an investigation of the effectiveness of long short-term memory (LSTM) models to predict individual house power. The investigation looks at hourly (24 h, 6 h, 1 h) and daily (7 days, 1 day) prediction horizons for four different recent datasets. We find that while LSTM models can potentially offer good prediction accuracy for 7 and 1 days ahead for some data sets, these models fail to provide satisfactory prediction accuracies for individual 24 h, 6 h, 1 h horizons.
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This work was supported by the NSF, grant ECCF 1936494. Any findings and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.
Alden, Rosemary E.; Gong, Huangjie; Ababei, Cristinel; and Ionel, Dan M., "LSTM Forecasts for Smart Home Electricity Usage" (2020). Power and Energy Institute of Kentucky Faculty Publications. 63.
Published in 2020 9th International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Application (ICRERA).
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The document available for download is the authors’ manuscript version. The final published version is copyrighted by IEEE and is available as: R. E. Alden, H. Gong, C. Ababei and D. M. Ionel, "LSTM Forecasts for Smart Home Electricity Usage," 2020 9th International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Application (ICRERA), 2020, pp. 434-438, doi: 10.1109/ICRERA49962.2020.9242804