Year of Publication

2017

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Document Type

Master's Thesis

College

Agriculture, Food and Environment

Department

Agricultural Economics

First Advisor

Dr. Tyler Mark

Abstract

This study examined The Margin Protection Program for Dairy’s impact on the “effective margins” or margins realized by dairy producers in various regions. Each selected margin and percentage of production history offered by the national policy was analyzed in a forecasting, national and regional manner. Couplet margins were simulated for fifteen regions from 2017 through 2020. Five scenarios were analyzed for the change in MPP’s effects under a 15%, 10%, and 5% drop in the price of milk as well as a 50% increase in the price of corn and a scenario where milk decreases 15% while corn prices simultaneously increases 25%. The results demonstrate that more than half of the regions have higher probabilities of triggering indemnities at every coverage level when compared to the US, MPP margin. Margins change in response to the policy effects, where lower coverage levels experience margin increase, and higher coverage levels experience margin decrease. In the US, MPP margin, risk reduction is observed at every coverage level. The program was found to decrease risk at most coverage levels, where higher shocks to the margin increased the protection offered by the program’s effects.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.13023/ETD.2017.447

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