Recurrence Interval Estimates for the July 2022 Eastern Kentucky Floods, North Fork of the Kentucky River

Authors

William C. Haneberg, University of KentuckyFollow

Researcher ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1254-2507

Files

Abstract

July 2022 flood recurrence interval calculations for three gages along the North Fork of the Kentucky River—Whitesburg, Hazard, and Jackson, Kentucky—based upon both empirical distributions and theoretical log-Pearson Type III distributions yield a range of results from 851 years for the Whitesburg gage near the headwaters of the North Fork to about 2 years for the Hazard gage to 94 years for the Jackson gage. While the log-Pearson Type III approach worked well for the Whitesburg and Hazard gages, it produced an unrealistically low estimate for the Jackson gage because the empirical and theoretical curves diverge significantly for large floods (including three exceptionally large floods of nearly equal discharge during the period of record). Peak annual discharge values for all three gages show a generally decreasing trend over time. The reason(s) for the decrease cannot be inferred from the stream gage data alone and may be the result of some combination of changing climate and precipitation patterns, flood control measures or topographic modification, and/or land cover changes.

Publication Date

Winter 12-1-2023

Series

13

Issue Number

1

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.13023/kgs13of12023

Spatial Coverage

North Fork of the Kentucky River, Whitesburg, Hazard, and Jackson, Kentucky

Temporal Coverage

2022

Language

English

Repository Citation

Haneberg, W.C., 2023, Recurrence Interval Estimates for the July 2022 Eastern Kentucky Floods, North Fork of the Kentucky River: Kentucky Geological Survey, ser. 13, Open-File Report 1.