Publication Date
1993
Description
A recent and preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the world food trade to climate change has indicated the following: Assuming {unrealistically} no adjustments in inputs, global food grains production in 2060 is estimated to be reduced by l-7% from the level that would be expected under a future without climate change. Food prices, including feedstock prices, are estimated lo be increased as a consequence, The implications of lhese changes for grassland production systems are considered. Two broad types of adjustmenls in inputs can be envisaged: firstly, on-farm responses of crop type and management and, secondly, national and international policy responses involving agreement on large-scale inter-regional transfers of water and the development of research programmes for breeding new cultivars for climate change, The first of these sets of adjustments reduces the downturn in production to 0-5%, with price increases reduced accordingly. The second reduces the downturn to about 3%. These possible effects on global food production are likely to have significant implications for grasslands, In some regions higher prices for foodgrains may encourage the extension of arable production systems into the current grasslands. In others, increased productive capacity for foodgrains and consequent reductions in feedslots prices may encourage the extension of livestock production systems, with concomitant increases in the grassland component of mixed farming systems. Wider issues concerning food supply and regional population affected by changes of climate are also considered. In some regions, reduced capacity may lead to regional and inter-regional migrations of people. Similarly, effects on water availability and demand in non-agricultural sectors may niter the competitive position of grass for land vis-a-vis other uses.
Citation
Parry, Martin and Rosenzweig, Cynthia, "Implications for Grasslands of the Response to Climate Change by the World Food System" (2024). IGC Proceedings (1993-2023). 2.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/1993/session35/2
Included in
Agricultural Science Commons, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Commons, Plant Biology Commons, Plant Pathology Commons, Soil Science Commons, Weed Science Commons
Implications for Grasslands of the Response to Climate Change by the World Food System
A recent and preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the world food trade to climate change has indicated the following: Assuming {unrealistically} no adjustments in inputs, global food grains production in 2060 is estimated to be reduced by l-7% from the level that would be expected under a future without climate change. Food prices, including feedstock prices, are estimated lo be increased as a consequence, The implications of lhese changes for grassland production systems are considered. Two broad types of adjustmenls in inputs can be envisaged: firstly, on-farm responses of crop type and management and, secondly, national and international policy responses involving agreement on large-scale inter-regional transfers of water and the development of research programmes for breeding new cultivars for climate change, The first of these sets of adjustments reduces the downturn in production to 0-5%, with price increases reduced accordingly. The second reduces the downturn to about 3%. These possible effects on global food production are likely to have significant implications for grasslands, In some regions higher prices for foodgrains may encourage the extension of arable production systems into the current grasslands. In others, increased productive capacity for foodgrains and consequent reductions in feedslots prices may encourage the extension of livestock production systems, with concomitant increases in the grassland component of mixed farming systems. Wider issues concerning food supply and regional population affected by changes of climate are also considered. In some regions, reduced capacity may lead to regional and inter-regional migrations of people. Similarly, effects on water availability and demand in non-agricultural sectors may niter the competitive position of grass for land vis-a-vis other uses.
