KWRRI Research Reports


We estimate aggregate monthly water use for summer, peak demand and nonsummer off-peak demand periods for the Kentucky River Basin. Using Kentucky Division of Water use data, U.S. Census data for county demographic and economic conditions, and U.S. Weather Service data for weather conditions we estimate use for the 1970-1993 period. Our model allows for idiosyncratic effects of each of the 27 counties in the sample. We find factors such as population and manufacturing employment affect use and temperature and rainfall in current and preceding months effect use during the summer, peak period. The model predicts well within the sample period. Population forecasts, both moderate and high growth series, from the Kentucky Data Center are used along with manufacturing employment forecasts for water use forecasts. Water use forecasts are made for years out to 2020 under 1930 drought conditions for comparison with water supply estimates. The use estimates are made assuming pricing and other demand estimate policies remain constant. For Pool 9 under 1930 weather conditions and high (moderate) population growth, water use is forecast to be 70 (55) MGD which is 220 gallons per person per day. For the Basin aggregate water use is forecast to be 129 (110) MGD. An Excel 5.0 spreadsheet was developed to make forecasts for various assumptions concerning: population, growth, and employment the degree to which new users come on line to water and sewer systems, and weather conditions.

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Prepared for the Kentucky River Authority by the Kentucky Water Resources Research Institute