The Challenges and Perils of Earthquake Prediction: Part 3. Basics or Prediction and Risk Assessment

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Past earthquake prediction efforts were based on several basic tenets (“the earthquake paradigm”) that are now being questioned by some seismologists. Earthquakes exhibit simple statistical distributions that can be used to understand their recurrence. Basic probability can be used to estimate earthquake recurrence intervals. Seismic risk is defined.

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This was part of the second session of the College of Arts & Sciences "What's New in Science" series in Spring 2013.