The Challenges and Perils of Earthquake Prediction: Part 3. Basics or Prediction and Risk Assessment
Past earthquake prediction efforts were based on several basic tenets (“the earthquake paradigm”) that are now being questioned by some seismologists. Earthquakes exhibit simple statistical distributions that can be used to understand their recurrence. Basic probability can be used to estimate earthquake recurrence intervals. Seismic risk is defined.
Moecher, Dave, "The Challenges and Perils of Earthquake Prediction: Part 3. Basics or Prediction and Risk Assessment" (2013). Earth and Environmental Sciences Presentations. 3.