Author ORCID Identifier
https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1778-8221
Date Available
8-1-2024
Year of Publication
2024
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Document Type
Doctoral Dissertation
College
Arts and Sciences
Department/School/Program
Political Science
First Advisor
Dr. Clayton Thyne
Abstract
Previous research has shown that political instability can lead to military coups, especially when it occurs close to the capital. However, other than proximity to the capital, no other geographic qualities of instability and their relationship to coups have been explored. Therefore, this dissertation serves as a detailed analysis of how the location of instability conditions its impact on coups.
To show how the locational qualities of instability influence coup likelihood, I borrow from expected utility models of coups, and explore how instability influences militaries’ disposition and ability to coup differently when it occurs in different areas within a country. I argue that coups are most likely to occur in response to instability when that instability occurs in four strategic areas: economically productive areas, densely populated areas, the territory of powerful ethnic groups, and across large swaths of territory.
Ultimately, I find battles are more likely to lead to a coup in economically productive and densely populated areas, though I do not find similar support for protests. I find battles in a group’s territory make that group more likely to coup. Finally, I find protests are more likely to lead to a coup when they are widespread, but not battles.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2024.364
Recommended Citation
O'Connell, William, "LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION: GEOGRAPHIC QUALITIES OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND MILITARY COUPS" (2024). Theses and Dissertations--Political Science. 52.
https://uknowledge.uky.edu/polysci_etds/52
